I wanted to discuss this trap the All Black selectors have seemingly fallen victim to over the past 3-4 years.
It's this philosophy that seems to be a continuation of Hansen & Foster's 2018-2019 season's mantra of attempting to cram as many of their best or flashiest players into a starting line-up, while completely disregarding the detrimental effect this has on the team's overall balance & the bench.
Playing Savea at 6/8, selecting two Spencer-like players in McKenzie & B.Barrett for their dual-playmaker axis in 2018 over Mo'unga, etc.
Intro summary: My biggest issue with Ian Foster's 23-man squad selections, particularly regarding team balance and the distinct differences between the roles & ideal requirements for starting vs bench/impact players.
Number one. Undersized at 15 and 8, are the All Black's main points of concern going forward for me.
There are serious team balance issues where I believe Savea & Jacobson's (and likewise McKenzie & J.Barret's) roles are back-to-front. Savea should be used predominantly as an impact player injected against tired legs. McKenzie is another who's impact is far more effectively bottled for when exploiting tiring defenses later-on during physical, highly attritional test matches.
Savea at just 99kg, is far too lightweight for an international 8, he's more effective at 7, (& most at 20 jersey).
Ideally, he should be used as our impact loosie (since Cane & Papali'i are more effective starting test-match 7's from a defensive and collision aspect), the same issue applies for DMac.
Damien is simply not physical enough (neither Offensively or Defensively) for starting at test-level. He runs sideways; gets rag-dolled, and the opposition backline are delighted upon sighting his name on the All Black's starting team-list.
McKenzie is not an international starting fullback full-stop, he's too short, too lightweight and looses the ball in the collision far too often. And he constantly gets isolated, as he often runs away from his support players.
Play him against tier-two opponents and he looks a million dollars, play him against big imposing physical sides and he'll get flattened, time and again.
The Argentina game where the All Black's under-sized backrow got demolished by Matera & Co, is a glaring example of Savea's ineffectiveness at 8.. Ireland 2018, England 2018 & 2019, are other notable examples.
Ardie doesn't make the meters at 8 he does at SR level - and if he isn't making meters what's the point? He's not particularly adept at any of the other stuff an 8 does. He's not a line-out option either.
For some perspective.. my current preference for All Black's #8 would probably be:
- Akira Ioane
- Luke Jacobson
- Ethan Blackadder
- Hoskins Sotutu/Dalton Papali'i (even out of position!)
(Daylight)
- Ardie Savea..
As great as Ardie is in terms of highlights at Super Rugby level - there's always significant question marks over his effectiveness against physical packs at test-level. He started at 7 vs England in the RWC Semi and offered nothing.
(Like McKenzie starting in the back-three) Ardie ruins the balance of the starting back-row. He's playing 8, yet he's only 100 kg. Go look at the matches he played off the bench from 2016-2018, he always had a far more effective impact from the 20 jersey. Very similar to the impact role an 102kg Pete Samu used to carry out for the Crusaders during those 2017/2018 winning seasons.
Savea & Cane are too small players (103kg vs 100kg) to both start. It destroys the balance of the back-row, as did the Hooper/Pocock combination. Unfortunately, the clueless Foster and Plumtree view Cane & Savea as our starting 7 and 8's going forward (at least) until the 2023 World Cup. Jacobson should be starting 8, Ardie 20.
Now onto my other issue, swapping the current roles of McKenzie & J.Barrett under Foster (for much the same reason for wanting Savea & Jacobsen roles being reversed).
DMac is a great player, awesome to watch, but as a starting test-fullback he's a liability, particularly on defense where he's constantly found out of position, and left scrambling to make last man tackles. He's not big enough & doesn't have long enough levers to be our last-line of defense at the back. On attack, he's as unpredictable to his own backline as he is to the opposition. His incessant dancing around behind his own players only allows the opposition time to reset a defensive line that doesn't have to worry too much about DMac passing, because there's no-one to pass to. If there are no gaps, you're not going to create one by running around in circles, run straight and draw defenders. At least in Jordie you have a fullback who will commit defenders. Jordie has the better boot, is better in the air, and a better defender. He will also fit in to a dual-playmaker role if required, as he plays 10 for the Hurricanes most of the time anyway..
I don't like Jordie at 15 because of his goal kicking, that's just a bonus in certain situations. I like him there because he has the key attributes that you really can't do without as a test-level 15 these days - outstanding under the high-ball and physically really strong on defense. Two things that Dmac lacks which is why I see him as a squad member or bench player at best.
When in-form, Jordie also has a strong (not fast) running game and can put his outsides away when the opportunities arise. He has the potential to be world-class in that position, however last season after he dominated Super Rugby there the coaches inexplicably out him on the wing which utilizes precisely none of his strengths. It's the 2nd dumbest selection I've ever seen (first being benching Cane in the semi) and it ruined his confidence.
With David Havili's creativity at 12, he's a 2nd-playermaker in this backline.. surely we do need yet another creative 2nd-playmaker fullback like McKenzie there as well? A bigger more powerful straight running fullback for consistently making it over the advantage-line when the team is going backwards, (Jordie's 100kg frame would be useful for straightening-up the attack & squaring up the opposition's defensive line) would be a better fit in a backline that currently features predominantly lateral/sideways runners in ALB, Havili, McKenzie, Reece, etc..
Damien is definitely not the type of player we want at fullback right now, especially in an era of ever-increasing physicality & needing domination of the advantage line.
McKenzie doesn't get proper go-forward, when you're going backwards, he runs sideways and isolates himself from his support players, commonly resulting in turnovers.
Running backwards & sideways, shuffling the ball on to the next man is insufficient to be an All Black first choice fullback. Poor passes, kicking out on the full, losing possession in contact, not releasing the ball in a tackle situation, etc, etc..
Jordie is a straight runner who gets huge go-forward & creates momentum shifts for his team when the Hurricanes are regularly getting bullied up-front physically & dominated at the advantage line. Jordie makes huge post-contact metres every time he carries.
He does the trench work for the Hurricanes, strongest NZ back-three player defensively, regularly makes turnovers on defense, holds people up, carries hard, physically dominant & he uses this to get his Canes out of tricky situations when they're going backwards - and that's regularly.
I prefer DMac as a 10, height is more valuable in the back-three & Jordie has a more ideal skillset for an international fullback. DMac's helter-skelter style is better suited for blasting teams off the bench. Jordie Barrett's size & physicality is better suited for starting test matches. Sam Cane starting with Ardie Savea off the bench was a similar dynamic than worked extremely well for the All Blacks. It's like with forwards how you ideally start your big abrasive physical guys & inject the nimble scuttlers once the contest has really tightened-up & the opposition forwards are tiring-out, therefore ripe for getting scorched by (more aptly-designed 'bench specialists') - being much smaller, more agile & light-footed players - such as McKenzie.
In conclusion... Ian Foster needs to seriously consider the differences in the roles & requirements between starting and bench/impact players and how important it is to get this balance right at international level.
