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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
Reti seems very capable. But I don't think he has shown he has the personality to lead. Will make a good MoH though
He's definitely very capable, but he doesn't come across as a very engaging speaker. He didn't fill me with confidence in that presser about Collins being rolled. Kinda reminded me of at school when the teacher picked the non-confident kid to thank the guest speaker in the classroom or something.
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@aucklandwarlord yeah I went to an event a couple of years back where he was one of the speakers (fortunately went before Grant Fox and Glenn Taylor rather than after) and he does seem to struggle with delivery and tone, cant fault his passion, but being a great orator just doesnt come naturally to some.
Still hope for Nats sake he stays near the front
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@muddyriver said in NZ Politics:
@nzzp housing and immigration are the major keys here.
NZ added over half a million people in the last 10 years through immigration alone (highest per capita in the oecd). Whilst we added little in terms of infrastructure and have horrendous city planning. This has exasperated the housing crisis where rentals are impossible to find now. It has also allowed our industries acces to cheap labor and thus they had less incentive to invest in more productive means. It has bloated farm prices as these farms costs have been reduced through cheap labor.
Housing is the golden goose in nz where few investments could match a highly geared property portfolio. Now this is a self fulfilling prophecy, why take high risk trying to create a productive business when you can buy more properties. Obviously that's on a spectrum but newzealanders by in large a far too keen on property which creates little real new value(existing) but has added billions in debt. I believe in the last couple of years it has finally started to weigh down the economy, which we will feel harder in a year when interest rate rises hit the market fully. Disposable incomes will plumet unless wages increase dramatically.
Unfortunately that's an economic fallacy that is easy to believe. In the medium to long run disposable incomes don't increase if you increase wages dramatically. The wage increases tend to trigger an inflationary cycle that at best maintains the disposable income in real terms. For the working poor it will usually decrease their already limited disposable income. A more accurate statement is that disposable income will plummet unless productivity increases dramatically. There's no getting away from the fact that NZ is a low productivity economy.
The sad thing is so much is reliant on the property industry it is very much too big to fail. It is a very hard problem to fix now. I think John key had the best opportunity after aunty Helen did some great damage.
It may be too big to fail, but even if it wasn't you'd likely still have over-investment in property. Sometimes economically it helps to look for the negative space. In this case if people didn't invest in property what would they be investing in instead? Forget ROI, is there any onshore, in-market alternative out there that even offers inflation-proofing?
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@jc how could we increase our productivity?
And that's not a fallacy, there it's a not a theory.
Interest rates have gone up and if incomes remain static the average new Zealanders will have less disposable income after they refix. 60% come off fixed next year. -
@muddyriver I’m not disagreeing with the drop in disposable income, I’m just saying that a big increase in wages won’t fix it. Without increasing productivity wage increases are inherently inflationary. Right now that’s the last thing the country needs.
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Simon was given a predictable deal to secure his loyalty
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@canes4life said in NZ Politics:
@gt12 lol the guy has made a success of himself and has invested wisely, seems like a smart man to me. Hardly his fault the market is overly inflated.
A bit of tall poppy syndrome creeping in here for me.
The old politics of envy raising its head again.
It never worked against Key.
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@kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@canes4life said in NZ Politics:
@gt12 lol the guy has made a success of himself and has invested wisely, seems like a smart man to me. Hardly his fault the market is overly inflated.
A bit of tall poppy syndrome creeping in here for me.
The old politics of envy raising its head again.
It never worked against Key.
Nothing wrong with aspiring to be better. Funny how we kiwis think it's a negative trait
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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@kirwan exactly what Shane Jones said in response to fears amongst Hone's community that covid would cause untold damage. So many people looking past the simplest course of action
I spent a decent amount of time in Northland on holidays (went to school there too). If they are going to set up Iwi roadblocks to check COVID passports, I’ll spend my money elsewhere.
Fuck Labour for making this sort of shit legal.
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@muddyriver said in NZ Politics:
@jc how could we increase our productivity?
Supposedly Rogernomics would bring increased productivity, but it hasn't had much of an impact.
In terms of how productivty is measured (income/hours worked), either income goes up faster than hours worked, or the number of hours worked falls than income falls.
Doing those seriously will require fundamental economic shifts, and I can't see it in my lifetime. Getting more work per hour has historically required one or more of:
- more automation (which can be machines e.g factories, computers, AI)
- more voluntary work (because it doesn't count in GDP)
- better education (the NZ experience has been a lot of diminishing returns as tertiary degrees or equivalent are common for people born after about 1975)
- less work (e.g. cut out what doesn't actually need to be done e.g. the recent 4 day week trials)
In theory, the PC should have (and did) resulted in a massive increase in productivity, but as far as I can tell, that wasn't translated into higher productivity figures across the economy even though the results at a firm level would have been massive e.g. replacing five (or more) administrators with one administrator and a PC. Likewise, increases in minimum wage are often opposed on the basis that employers will automate jobs, but in practice, that hasn't really happened (NZIER recently released a report showing minimum wage could be quite a bit higher than currently without a negative impact on job creation or causing the actual loss of jobs, and that increases haven't caused either of those). Fast food could automate away a lot of staff in some types of food (or all of it in the case of hot pizza vending machines), but people aren't that interested in dining in those places. Jobs at risk of automation by AI are jobs like mid-tier administrative jobs e.g. legal secretary and book-keeping roles because that's where the money is.
Also, good to see Nick Smith enjoying life outside politics.
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@kirwan said in NZ Politics:
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@kirwan exactly what Shane Jones said in response to fears amongst Hone's community that covid would cause untold damage. So many people looking past the simplest course of action
I spent a decent amount of time in Northland on holidays (went to school there too). If they are going to set up Iwi roadblocks to check COVID passports, I’ll spend my money elsewhere.
Fuck Labour for making this sort of shit legal.
They have to be supervised by a constable (legal term for police officer), which was legal anyway as constables can request assistance from civilians under current legislation (and have always been able to).
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@mick-gold-coast-qld said in NZ Politics:
@godder said in NZ Politics:
Iwi roadblocks
What, pray, is an "iwi roadblock"???
The local Maori tribe up North are shit scared of covid. So instead of getting vaccinated they would rather blockade the road to stop people from coming up there, much to the dismay of business owners who depend on tourism for their survival. Sounds ridiculous when you read it. Coz it is
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