Rugby Stats
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@mariner4life dunno, I think there are trends and patterns that assist in developing game plans to get oppositions to react certain ways or force them into decisions that are more beneficial to you.
But agree rugby is fluid and anything but predictable, and when you input the variables, the science will struggle, but then analysing will always happen, I mean what the hell do we do here?
We watch games, see scores, see what stats we get access to, use our minds to analyse and determine what should have happened, or think will happen.
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@dogmeat said in Rugby Stats:
@mariner4life Agree re rugby but one of the joys of cricket is a deep dive into the stats
Cricket is way different. So is baseball. So is even American Football.
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@mariner4life What about league? Dynamic, but much more structured and uniform than union.
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@tim dunno
Yes more static and structured. Be interesting to see what they actually use rather than thr usual "metres after contact" and "metres" you seeEven the basic tackle stats are misleading as the 2rd guy in gets a stat for little more than flopping on the ruck (hello Nathan Hindmarsh)
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Stats are fucking great for planning in any sport that is a series of one-on-one battles.
I feel like for fuid team sports there is a place, but my gut tells me it's more team analytics. I feel like endless video would be more worthwhile.
But again I have zero fucking idea. I am guessing what is used and how. Be interesting for someone to actually tell us (fat chance of that from anyone still in the game)
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@mariner4life said in Rugby Stats:
@tim dunno
Yes more static and structured. Be interesting to see what they actually use rather than thr usual "metres after contact" and "metres" you seeEven the basic tackle stats are misleading as the 2rd guy in gets a stat for little more than flopping on the ruck (hello Nathan Hindmarsh)
Which can also be crucial for slowing down the next play and is actually beneficial - but I agree with your point.
I just don't trust published stats these days (obviously unless they suit my argument
). The anti Akira brigade were using stats to claim Akira ran no metres in a test this year when any fool with eyes saw him run metres.There's also the difference between someone making tackles and Sam Cane nailing someone early in a test match that makes them think about it later in the match (are you fucking listening Hansen?)
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@bobily2 said in Rugby Stats:
@voodoo said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 I don't think the media have access to much do they? When my mate was coaching at the Tahs, they used Opta stats, but they were useless, so they relied much more on their in-house stats guy where they could get the specific things they wanted (dominant tackles, first 3 to rucks, speed off the ground, repeat efforts etc), and they trusted his accuracy. I'd expect the media just have access to the same ESPC stuff that we do?
It's quite possible I'm wrong.
I'm generalising from what I've heard about AFL journalism in Australia from a sports stats rep - where they said the media weren't interested in reporting on the measures that were found to best predict success.
It's quite possible there is more to the story, too. I do know that Opta record more in depth information than your bog standard tackles made/missed. Perhaps media need to pay more for these, and don't see it as being a good use of money.
Most of the AFL media is more interested in selling the product which is understandable given the amount of money that is paid for rights. They delve a little because the audience these days demands more (as opposed to the 80s fans when the only individual stat worth looking at was goals kicked).
But there are a couple of decent shows on Fox Footy and SEN radio that really get into the nitty gritty and demonstrate they have more stats than what you can find on the web. I know a couple of AFL insiders that also said they rely heavily on their own in-house club stats because they tend look at three or four things in combination as part of their post-game and preparation analysis.
Part of me finds it extremely interesting but part of me also finds it a bit sad because a game like AFL has become so manufactured almost. Rugby too.
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@act-crusader and then someone gives David King a couple of stats and he says incoherent bullshit
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@mariner4life said in Rugby Stats:
Stats are fucking great for planning in any sport that is a series of one-on-one battles.
I feel like for fuid team sports there is a place, but my gut tells me it's more team analytics. I feel like endless video would be more worthwhile.
But again I have zero fucking idea. I am guessing what is used and how. Be interesting for someone to actually tell us (fat chance of that from anyone still in the game)
Yea, you probably wouldn't be using data to try and break the game in the same way one might for baseball. Some fairly basic uses could be deciding whether a shot at goal vs lineout is a better approach when awarded a penalty, or, with game theory, deciding the optimum lineout strategy from 5m out (e.g. if you only ever go to the front, the predictability helps the other team defend - so you want to throw it long sometimes - but how often?). Perhaps data can also be used to feed into decisions between scrummaging vs mobile props, or a better kicking first five who has limited attacking ability vs a playmaker.
Personally, I believe data could be used a lot more widely than these scenarios - but I think having some people who disagree is healthy, because if I had my way almost everything (in and outside of rugby) would be based on data. Particularly if we lived in some sort of data utopia where we had access to higher quality data (time on the ground out of the defensive line, dominant tackles, ineffectual tackles, time it took for the halfback to deliver the ball, linespeed on defense, distance covered off the ball etc)
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@bobily2 said in Rugby Stats:
because if I had my way almost everything (in and outside of rugby) would be based on data.
I'm not sure I can convince my wife on that point. Unless data means loads of shopping receipts..
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@bobily2 said in Rugby Stats:
@dan54 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@dan54 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@tim personally don't take a hell of a lot of notice of stats as 1; they tell you bugger all and 2; there are so many different ones for same matches that don't match up, you wonder how they get counted by different stats keepers!
I find it better to watch a game of rugby (preferably live) and take notice of how players go. . Watch how quick a player gets off ground to be available to part of next play whether attack or defence.. We actually did a bit of a look at stats when I was coaching, and as a coaching group found them pretty useless in working out how good a player was. For tackles for instance, you could see a player had attempted and made say 6 tackles, but unless stats actually tell you if they were in a position to make difference etc doesn't help all that much, or whether the player actually had to move far to make tackles etc. They good for Joe Bloggs who doesn't really watch the game as a rule, but would never use tham as a tool for picking a team.
I'm a data analyst, so I have to defend the use of stats, or I couldn't have any professional pride - albeit the defense will be closer to a muddled collection of thoughts, rather than a well laid out argument. But, aside from that, I also believe they are of huge value in most areas of life, particularly sport. Though I think it is important to note that we don't necessarily see a lot of the more important stats - though they are likely still collected and circulated to the coaching staff).
Our memories are far from perfect. We can't possibly process all the information we experience, so we use a bunch of shortcuts, which are usually pretty useful. However, these lead to a whole bunch of biases and flaws e.g. confirmation bias, where one looks to confirm information they already believe. The result being that intelligent, informed rugby viewers can see the same game, but come out with different opinions. Stats are an objective alternative that can be used in situations where people might disagree - e.g. if some people think Akira Ioane is lazy, and others disagree you can find stats to resolve this including tackles made, rucks hit, turnovers won, metres run without the ball and compare to other players in a similar position.
I agree bobily, and what you are talking about aren't stats as we know them from reading papers. I agree wholeheartedly if when you have a analytics which coaches etc use. Unless you have a proper run down of tackles that are dominant, those that are in which part of field, meters run and passes that are made that create gaps. rucks that hit and when you do it for a reason etc etc. We at a club obviously couldn't get all thoae stats as you need a computer prgramme to do it, and those that coaches use are not even able to be used until the game has been viewed etc an awful lot of times and data fed into computer.
I stand by what I said the stats you get from press is of no use to a coach at all.Lol my granddaughter is a data analyst too, just did her got her masters for it, so I not allowed to rubbish them too much.
Glad I don't have to convince you that stats are great
Agreed, what you get via the press is of little value - and it doesn't really seem to have evolved over the last 10-15 years, either. I think we really need journalists/presenters to up their game and put out some better content - NZ rugby would only be better off for it.
Lol bobily, I just read on another thread on here about how good a hooker was from so called lineout stats , which is exactly why I find them so little use. When people read stats on lineouts won and lost and mark the hooker down or up against such things, as I pointed out stats don't show why lineout was won and lost ie was throw off, did jumper just miss ball, did lifter/s do their job. I was thinking when I played as a lineout target I would of loved the hooker etc being balmed for all the lineouts where I was simply outjumped etc!!
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@dan54 said in Rugby Stats:
@bobily2 said in Rugby Stats:
@dan54 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@dan54 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@tim personally don't take a hell of a lot of notice of stats as 1; they tell you bugger all and 2; there are so many different ones for same matches that don't match up, you wonder how they get counted by different stats keepers!
I find it better to watch a game of rugby (preferably live) and take notice of how players go. . Watch how quick a player gets off ground to be available to part of next play whether attack or defence.. We actually did a bit of a look at stats when I was coaching, and as a coaching group found them pretty useless in working out how good a player was. For tackles for instance, you could see a player had attempted and made say 6 tackles, but unless stats actually tell you if they were in a position to make difference etc doesn't help all that much, or whether the player actually had to move far to make tackles etc. They good for Joe Bloggs who doesn't really watch the game as a rule, but would never use tham as a tool for picking a team.
I'm a data analyst, so I have to defend the use of stats, or I couldn't have any professional pride - albeit the defense will be closer to a muddled collection of thoughts, rather than a well laid out argument. But, aside from that, I also believe they are of huge value in most areas of life, particularly sport. Though I think it is important to note that we don't necessarily see a lot of the more important stats - though they are likely still collected and circulated to the coaching staff).
Our memories are far from perfect. We can't possibly process all the information we experience, so we use a bunch of shortcuts, which are usually pretty useful. However, these lead to a whole bunch of biases and flaws e.g. confirmation bias, where one looks to confirm information they already believe. The result being that intelligent, informed rugby viewers can see the same game, but come out with different opinions. Stats are an objective alternative that can be used in situations where people might disagree - e.g. if some people think Akira Ioane is lazy, and others disagree you can find stats to resolve this including tackles made, rucks hit, turnovers won, metres run without the ball and compare to other players in a similar position.
I agree bobily, and what you are talking about aren't stats as we know them from reading papers. I agree wholeheartedly if when you have a analytics which coaches etc use. Unless you have a proper run down of tackles that are dominant, those that are in which part of field, meters run and passes that are made that create gaps. rucks that hit and when you do it for a reason etc etc. We at a club obviously couldn't get all thoae stats as you need a computer prgramme to do it, and those that coaches use are not even able to be used until the game has been viewed etc an awful lot of times and data fed into computer.
I stand by what I said the stats you get from press is of no use to a coach at all.Lol my granddaughter is a data analyst too, just did her got her masters for it, so I not allowed to rubbish them too much.
Glad I don't have to convince you that stats are great
Agreed, what you get via the press is of little value - and it doesn't really seem to have evolved over the last 10-15 years, either. I think we really need journalists/presenters to up their game and put out some better content - NZ rugby would only be better off for it.
Lol bobily, I just read on another thread on here about how good a hooker was from so called lineout stats , which is exactly why I find them so little use. When people read stats on lineouts won and lost and mark the hooker down or up against such things, as I pointed out stats don't show why lineout was won and lost ie was throw off, did jumper just miss ball, did lifter/s do their job. I was thinking when I played as a lineout target I would of loved the hooker etc being balmed for all the lineouts where I was simply outjumped etc!!
Just shows the importance of people needing to be educated around what the stats mean before they use them. Peer review is also useful in these cases. A chainsaw is a great tool, but msybe not everyone should be using one.
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@bobily2 said in Rugby Stats:
@dan54 said in Rugby Stats:
@bobily2 said in Rugby Stats:
@dan54 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@dan54 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@tim personally don't take a hell of a lot of notice of stats as 1; they tell you bugger all and 2; there are so many different ones for same matches that don't match up, you wonder how they get counted by different stats keepers!
I find it better to watch a game of rugby (preferably live) and take notice of how players go. . Watch how quick a player gets off ground to be available to part of next play whether attack or defence.. We actually did a bit of a look at stats when I was coaching, and as a coaching group found them pretty useless in working out how good a player was. For tackles for instance, you could see a player had attempted and made say 6 tackles, but unless stats actually tell you if they were in a position to make difference etc doesn't help all that much, or whether the player actually had to move far to make tackles etc. They good for Joe Bloggs who doesn't really watch the game as a rule, but would never use tham as a tool for picking a team.
I'm a data analyst, so I have to defend the use of stats, or I couldn't have any professional pride - albeit the defense will be closer to a muddled collection of thoughts, rather than a well laid out argument. But, aside from that, I also believe they are of huge value in most areas of life, particularly sport. Though I think it is important to note that we don't necessarily see a lot of the more important stats - though they are likely still collected and circulated to the coaching staff).
Our memories are far from perfect. We can't possibly process all the information we experience, so we use a bunch of shortcuts, which are usually pretty useful. However, these lead to a whole bunch of biases and flaws e.g. confirmation bias, where one looks to confirm information they already believe. The result being that intelligent, informed rugby viewers can see the same game, but come out with different opinions. Stats are an objective alternative that can be used in situations where people might disagree - e.g. if some people think Akira Ioane is lazy, and others disagree you can find stats to resolve this including tackles made, rucks hit, turnovers won, metres run without the ball and compare to other players in a similar position.
I agree bobily, and what you are talking about aren't stats as we know them from reading papers. I agree wholeheartedly if when you have a analytics which coaches etc use. Unless you have a proper run down of tackles that are dominant, those that are in which part of field, meters run and passes that are made that create gaps. rucks that hit and when you do it for a reason etc etc. We at a club obviously couldn't get all thoae stats as you need a computer prgramme to do it, and those that coaches use are not even able to be used until the game has been viewed etc an awful lot of times and data fed into computer.
I stand by what I said the stats you get from press is of no use to a coach at all.Lol my granddaughter is a data analyst too, just did her got her masters for it, so I not allowed to rubbish them too much.
Glad I don't have to convince you that stats are great
Agreed, what you get via the press is of little value - and it doesn't really seem to have evolved over the last 10-15 years, either. I think we really need journalists/presenters to up their game and put out some better content - NZ rugby would only be better off for it.
Lol bobily, I just read on another thread on here about how good a hooker was from so called lineout stats , which is exactly why I find them so little use. When people read stats on lineouts won and lost and mark the hooker down or up against such things, as I pointed out stats don't show why lineout was won and lost ie was throw off, did jumper just miss ball, did lifter/s do their job. I was thinking when I played as a lineout target I would of loved the hooker etc being balmed for all the lineouts where I was simply outjumped etc!!
Just shows the importance of people needing to be educated around what the stats mean before they use them. Peer review is also useful in these cases. A chainsaw is a great tool, but msybe not everyone should be using one.
Agreed.
I think one of the better things about this site is that when people start trying to interpret stats/numbers, others will pretty quickly jump and and question them if the logic of their use doesn't stack up.
So, it's not the numbers, but the interpretation.
I'm guilty of interpreting stats incorrectly too at times, but as this is a discussion board, I guess that it was makes it interesting.
Those stats did seem to show that Taukei'aho's running game is really a sustained strength. I'm looking forward to the locks next!
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@bobily2 said in Rugby Stats:
@dan54 said in Rugby Stats:
@bobily2 said in Rugby Stats:
@dan54 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@dan54 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@tim personally don't take a hell of a lot of notice of stats as 1; they tell you bugger all and 2; there are so many different ones for same matches that don't match up, you wonder how they get counted by different stats keepers!
I find it better to watch a game of rugby (preferably live) and take notice of how players go. . Watch how quick a player gets off ground to be available to part of next play whether attack or defence.. We actually did a bit of a look at stats when I was coaching, and as a coaching group found them pretty useless in working out how good a player was. For tackles for instance, you could see a player had attempted and made say 6 tackles, but unless stats actually tell you if they were in a position to make difference etc doesn't help all that much, or whether the player actually had to move far to make tackles etc. They good for Joe Bloggs who doesn't really watch the game as a rule, but would never use tham as a tool for picking a team.
I'm a data analyst, so I have to defend the use of stats, or I couldn't have any professional pride - albeit the defense will be closer to a muddled collection of thoughts, rather than a well laid out argument. But, aside from that, I also believe they are of huge value in most areas of life, particularly sport. Though I think it is important to note that we don't necessarily see a lot of the more important stats - though they are likely still collected and circulated to the coaching staff).
Our memories are far from perfect. We can't possibly process all the information we experience, so we use a bunch of shortcuts, which are usually pretty useful. However, these lead to a whole bunch of biases and flaws e.g. confirmation bias, where one looks to confirm information they already believe. The result being that intelligent, informed rugby viewers can see the same game, but come out with different opinions. Stats are an objective alternative that can be used in situations where people might disagree - e.g. if some people think Akira Ioane is lazy, and others disagree you can find stats to resolve this including tackles made, rucks hit, turnovers won, metres run without the ball and compare to other players in a similar position.
I agree bobily, and what you are talking about aren't stats as we know them from reading papers. I agree wholeheartedly if when you have a analytics which coaches etc use. Unless you have a proper run down of tackles that are dominant, those that are in which part of field, meters run and passes that are made that create gaps. rucks that hit and when you do it for a reason etc etc. We at a club obviously couldn't get all thoae stats as you need a computer prgramme to do it, and those that coaches use are not even able to be used until the game has been viewed etc an awful lot of times and data fed into computer.
I stand by what I said the stats you get from press is of no use to a coach at all.Lol my granddaughter is a data analyst too, just did her got her masters for it, so I not allowed to rubbish them too much.
Glad I don't have to convince you that stats are great
Agreed, what you get via the press is of little value - and it doesn't really seem to have evolved over the last 10-15 years, either. I think we really need journalists/presenters to up their game and put out some better content - NZ rugby would only be better off for it.
Lol bobily, I just read on another thread on here about how good a hooker was from so called lineout stats , which is exactly why I find them so little use. When people read stats on lineouts won and lost and mark the hooker down or up against such things, as I pointed out stats don't show why lineout was won and lost ie was throw off, did jumper just miss ball, did lifter/s do their job. I was thinking when I played as a lineout target I would of loved the hooker etc being balmed for all the lineouts where I was simply outjumped etc!!
Just shows the importance of people needing to be educated around what the stats mean before they use them. Peer review is also useful in these cases. A chainsaw is a great tool, but msybe not everyone should be using one.
Bang on bobily. and I suspect not very many of us on here are educated on how to use them, or we wouldn't bother quoting them! Well not the ones we see!
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I was doing big data statistics before it was trendy.
Probably explains why I was quite shit at it.
For me, stats are great but they don't explain the one big thing. That being why.
Why did Akira Ioane top most statistics vs Australia and then become a bit of a non entity against the Boks? What was it that changed?
Thats the most important thing. Stats don't tell you a lot on top of what you see.
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One reason why teams should keep their statistics to themselves is that anything that is a measure will be gamed.
So if you tell players to raise their tackle statistic, they will make more tackles. They may well be useless tackles, but that is the cost of using statistics as a measure. Tell them they need to make more dominant tackles, and they will make more dominant tackles, but possibly fall off more simple ones trying too hard to make them dominant. The person using the statistics needs to say "X isn't tackling as well as we would expect" and the coach then work on their tackling in general.
Don't use statistics as a measure of success, well rather, not a measure that the target knows. And one way to ensure that is not publish them.
Except fitness statistics. Which I suspect is the one measure that professional coaches all care deeply about.
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@majorrage said in Rugby Stats:
I was doing big data statistics before it was trendy.
Probably explains why I was quite shit at it.
For me, stats are great but they don't explain the one big thing. That being why.
Why did Akira Ioane top most statistics vs Australia and then become a bit of a non entity against the Boks? What was it that changed?
Thats the most important thing. Stats don't tell you a lot on top of what you see.
It probably won't be that much more helpful but if we had a table of say all 6 loose forwards across both ABs and opponents and their relative %stats across all those games it might indicate where Akira was complemented better or negated more by the opposition?
I also wonder if it is possible and helpful to have time each player holds onto the ball and correlate it to overall possession time, field gained and points taken..(is one person likely to be hindering or speeding up play?) probably not but I wonder.
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From rugby database
With Ma'a Nonu signing on for the 2024 season with San Diego Legion he is set to equal Jimmy Gopperth for the most calendar years playing first-class rugby by a New Zealander.
Making his debut in 2002, this will be his 23rd year.
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@Chester-Draws said in Rugby Stats:
One reason why teams should keep their statistics to themselves is that anything that is a measure will be gamed.
…
Don't use statistics as a measure of success, well rather, not a measure that the target knows. And one way to ensure that is not publish them.
This is an interesting discussion and @Chester-Draws point resonates. Players will optimize for whatever coaches measure and value. In my limited experience that can be useful.
Most of us loosely judge our performance on whatever we idealize as the key part of our game: “I took 2 tightheads”, “made a heap of turnovers”, “caught that ruck rat a few times, eh.?” And of course “ran 40 yards through 16 defenders and scored a beauty.”
Your more fanatical teammates might even have logged simple stats like tackles, turnovers & lineouts won, tries scored. More rarely knock ons, penalties given away, tackles missed.
But it’s eye-opening to see detailed, team-wide stats week on week. Especially when you’re forced to face your two turnovers against 3 breakdown penalties. Or tries v points directly conceded.
And really useful to motivate players to work harder on the hard graft v flash stuff. Hilarious to see props and centres bragging about first arrivals at rucks.
And especially for kids it’s a good way to encourage them to appreciate all the work that needs to be done to create a try and get them keen to do it.
If you’re coaching youngsters try getting the subs to keep simple stats on the game and then ask them what they see that should be a focus at halftime. Takes a few games, but soon enough they’ll start delivering pretty solid insights.
