Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm amazed that you guys are aguing potential percentage numbers.
Today Bloomfield said we may never go back to zero. Gone to L3 regardless. Virus now in 3 gangs, try containing that!. Crossed a provincial border, still gone to L3.
Seems to me they're hinting as hard as can be hinted that elimination is about to blow.
You're discussing the past's vision of a potential future exit.
Its moved.
That's how I'm reading it.
Because of this;
"He (Bloomfeild) said vaccination rates need to be north of 90 per cent before they’re confident of opening up the freedoms of alert level 1."
My take on that is the same as what you say, that these measures are permanent.
We'll go to level 1 when we get 90 to 100% antibodies. But, only about 80 % will be via vaccination, the rest will be naturally acquired.
My take.
At the current ~20 cases a day, there's only 20000 days to go!
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@kirwan as I mentioned above, the initiative re 90% was from NZME, but as I suspected this has likely been the Govt driving this.
I do wonder if they will use L3 and L2 restrictions to help drive further vaccinations - if you want freedoms back, get vaccinated!
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan as I mentioned above, the initiative re 90% was from NZME, but as I suspected this has likely been the Govt driving this.
I do wonder if they will use L3 and L2 restrictions to help drive further vaccinations - if you want freedoms back, get vaccinated!
Just being softly released by their pets in the press. Same as last year when Taxinda would say they are not planning a lockdown but "be prepared".
She is so dishonest.
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
There is a 'blame it on on the gangs' opportunity possibly coming up for the govt to be able to shrug their shoulders at a change of approach.
Can't see them throwing their colleagues under the bus like that...
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Thanks for posting that, it's an excellent article.
Good info but much of the 'results' don't show where we end up in 6 weeks time. e.g. the 'doses per 100 pax'. We have about 36% sitting at home waiting until their next jab is done. That would change our position a lot.
I got in with my bookings just before the 6 week gap instead of 3 came along. The science behind that increase didn't seem too conclusive and as this was pre-delta in Auckland and the impetus to speed things up I wonder if they called that one a bit early.
If people were going back for their second after three weeks it would stop this picture of a slowing momentum. They (as TR is doing) would also get new first dose people brought along while second doses are being done. I wonder how many others, especially with teens, are doing the same out of convenience? Don't get your first now, come along in a few weeks when we get our second. It's understandable.
Probably too late now as the messaging gets messy.
Even the whole booking system thing that allowed way too much time per person has backfired a bit given what happened. Lots of folks thought that was the only way and instead they should have just promoted an open slather mass vax approach.
The planning was all good while we were in a safe little bubble but now people want out of this fast and a move to a different approach. That hinges on speeding up the vaxxing and maximum efforts should be going into that. Hammer the message home. -
@crucial I think the booking system possibly put some off, back when they first opened it for 16 yr olds, the booking system said it was 6 week wait for TR Jnr to get his jab (which would be in a week or so) but we took him to the large centre they have set up here and got it.
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@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Thanks for posting that, it's an excellent article.
Good info but much of the 'results' don't show where we end up in 6 weeks time. e.g. the 'doses per 100 pax'. We have about 36% sitting at home waiting until their next jab is done. That would change our position a lot.
I got in with my bookings just before the 6 week gap instead of 3 came along. The science behind that increase didn't seem too conclusive and as this was pre-delta in Auckland and the impetus to speed things up I wonder if they called that one a bit early.
If people were going back for their second after three weeks it would stop this picture of a slowing momentum. They (as TR is doing) would also get new first dose people brought along while second doses are being done. I wonder how many others, especially with teens, are doing the same out of convenience? Don't get your first now, come along in a few weeks when we get our second. It's understandable.
Probably too late now as the messaging gets messy.
Even the whole booking system thing that allowed way too much time per person has backfired a bit given what happened. Lots of folks thought that was the only way and instead they should have just promoted an open slather mass vax approach.
The planning was all good while we were in a safe little bubble but now people want out of this fast and a move to a different approach. That hinges on speeding up the vaxxing and maximum efforts should be going into that. Hammer the message home.They litterally addressed that in the article. Not sure what you mean.
"The big rush and sudden fall was mostly for first doses, with the rate of second doses staying pretty stable at not much more than 20,000 a day. That suggests in October we will see another spike as the 1m Kiwis who got a first dose in late-August and early September get their second dose after six weeks."
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I don't agree that the government messaging is changing. It changed weeks - actually months ago. Way before the latest Delta outbreak.
they have talked for several months about living with Covid. That elimination doesn't mean zero cases and that we don't have to wait for zero to re-open.
The mixed messaging is around the 90% which is not just a Ferald thing but has been mentioned by Hipkins, Adern and Bloomfield.
I'm happy enough with 90% as a target. Just give me any fucking target, but explain what it means. There is also ongoing talk of repeated lockdowns. Again give me a plan.
We get to 90% and this can happen
If we get an outbreak (define it) this is what will have to happen so that we don't overwhelm the health system. Meanwhile we are prioritising x, y, z to shore up our health system. Global campaign to attract medical professionals would be a start.and the biggie what happens when Epsilon or Zeta rear their ugly crowned heads?
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
There is also ongoing talk of repeated lockdowns. Again give me a plan.
From Andrew Little
“But I'd be surprised if we ever see level 4 again,” he said.
We shall see
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@dogmeat surely they are being guided (open season on the quality of communications advice though ) by messaging for the masses rather than the finely honed minds of us ferners. But from our korero over the last 18 months we aren't the problem when it comes to getting vaccinated, or engaging with the info etc.
I have no problems with less nuanced messaging if that will be more effective with x, y, z groups. Ultimately the disengaged and reluctant are those we need to reach to get anywhere near that 90%+ target. -
@paekakboyz I'd say there is a decent chunk of our rural and coastal communities that are probably likely to get vaccinated, but accessibility is an issue (an hour + to a facility) so these mobile units need to be increased and hit the road!
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm happy enough with 90% as a target. Just give me any fucking target, but explain what it means. There is also ongoing talk of repeated lockdowns. Again give me a plan.
We get to 90% and this can happen
If we get an outbreak (define it) this is what will have to happen so that we don't overwhelm the health system.When governments are hiding stuff, I never came across a time it doesn't mean bad (unpopular for them) news, yeah?
Not sure what but I'm guessing maybe a need for rolling L2 and L3 for 6-12 months and MIQ stays pretty much as is for 6+ months, maybe a year, as they can't afford international infections propagating.
International bubbles and "safe" countries are history as countries are opening up as much as they can ... e.g. Denmark is great now but could have high case rates again in 6 or 9 months, who can predict?
Something like that they don't want to say until they have to.
Politically better to handle it by having a 90% vaccination rate first, say "Yay Team New Zealand!!! We're all brilliant!!!! WOOOOO - SUCCESS !!!!" ... and then start to drip feed what they're not saying now.
I'm just waiting until I can get back to NZ without a costly and 14-day MIQ ... have zero idea when that might be
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@taniwharugby I heard the jab buses are rolling to those sorts of communities. So that is good news if that is indeed the case. Hopefully we can focus more and more energy on the remaining groups as the rest of us get double jabbed.
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@l_n_p said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm happy enough with 90% as a target. Just give me any fucking target, but explain what it means. There is also ongoing talk of repeated lockdowns. Again give me a plan.
We get to 90% and this can happen
If we get an outbreak (define it) this is what will have to happen so that we don't overwhelm the health system.When governments are hiding stuff, I never came across a time it doesn't mean bad (unpopular for them) news, yeah?
Not sure what but I'm guessing maybe a need for rolling L2 and L3 for 6-12 months and MIQ stays pretty much as is for 6+ months, maybe a year, as they can't afford international infections propagating.
International bubbles and "safe" countries are history as countries are opening up as much as they can ... e.g. Denmark is great now but could have high case rates again in 6 or 9 months, who can predict?
Something like that they don't want to say until they have to.
Politically better to handle it by having a 90% vaccination rate first, say "Yay Team New Zealand!!! We're all brilliant!!!! WOOOOO - SUCCESS !!!!" ... and then start to drip feed what they're not saying now.
I'm just waiting until I can get back to NZ without a costly and 14-day MIQ ... have zero idea when that might be
sadly my uninformed gut feel is exactly this
i have similar fears for Qld
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@l_n_p yep, they are always comparing, so will be aiming to exceed anything anyone else does, so the legacy will be Cindy/NZ handled the pandemic better than any other country.
I know my wife would love to see her mum and dad, especially with the latter not in great health, but she is just like plenty of others on both sides of this.
I think I read something like 20,000 people tried to get into MIQ around the Christmas period with 2,000 spots available? Plus I wonder how many didnt both trying, knowing it would be a wasted effort.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@l_n_p yep, they are always comparing, so will be aiming to exceed anything anyone else does, so the legacy will be Cindy/NZ handled the pandemic better than any other country.
I know my wife would love to see her mum and dad, especially with the latter not in great health, but she is just like plenty of others on both sides of this.
I think I read something like 20,000 people tried to get into MIQ around the Christmas period with 2,000 spots available? Plus I wonder how many didnt both trying, knowing it would be a wasted effort.