Financial advice for a fellow ferner
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Godder" data-cid="596252" data-time="1468387619">
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<p>Arthur Grimes, former RBNZ Governor said it. Don Brash didn't name a percentage figure, but generally agreed that housing affordability is impossible without some sort of "correction".</p>
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<p>that i can deal with, i was talking about the quote from Baron about my house price decreasing meaning my mortgage would be cheaper</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Baron Silas Greenback" data-cid="596254" data-time="1468387777">
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<p><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11671668'>http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11671668</a></p>
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<p>He is a self and media described 'expert'...</p>
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<p>jesus, he really said it. His whole article is a little fairytale-ish, but i would love to hear his explanation of that line. </p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Baron Silas Greenback" data-cid="596254" data-time="1468387777">
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<p><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11671668'>http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11671668</a></p>
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<p>He is a self and media described 'expert'...</p>
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<p>May be missing the word 'rates'. </p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Toddy" data-cid="596270" data-time="1468389352">
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<p>May be missing the word 'rates'. </p>
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<p>Even then it isn't accurate. No reason to think that plummeting house prices would definitely be coupled with lower interest rates. It would be a factor of course, but there are lots of others.</p>
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<p>And 'Mortgages Rates' .. isnt grammatically correct either. So I don't think it was a typo.</p> -
<p>I think 'mortgage rates' in that sentence would be perfectly acceptable and I think a busted housing market would have a big impact on interest rates. I also think Hickey is an absolute cock, so I'm happy that his published sentence makes him look like a fool.</p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Toddy" data-cid="596281" data-time="1468390899">
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<p>I think 'mortgage rates' in that sentence would be perfectly acceptable and I think a busted housing market would have a big impact on interest rates.<strong> I also think Hickey is an absolute cock</strong>, so I'm happy that his published sentence makes him look like a fool.</p>
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<p>Agreed. He has some competition in <span style="color:rgb(84,84,84);font-family:arial, sans-serif;font-size:small;">Shamubeel Eaqub now though.</span></p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="jegga" data-cid="596286" data-time="1468391362">
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<p>Agreed. He has some competition in <span style="color:rgb(84,84,84);font-family:arial, sans-serif;font-size:small;">Shamubeel Eaqub now though.</span></p>
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<p>At the least you could fix the formatting and pretend you knew how to spell it :)</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Toddy" data-cid="596292" data-time="1468391684">
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<p>At the least you could fix the formatting and pretend you knew how to spell it :)</p>
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<p>Nah, I spent two minutes trying to google his name and gave up and went to the herald to c+p it.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Toddy" data-cid="596281" data-time="1468390899">
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<p>I think 'mortgage rates' in that sentence would be perfectly acceptable and I think a busted housing market would have a big impact on interest rates. I also think Hickey is an absolute cock, so I'm happy that his published sentence makes him look like a fool.</p>
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<p>It would arguable that housing crash would result in lower interest rates. But not in that sentence as he made it as a statement of fact. And it is not a sure thing that interest rates would drop with a housing crash. Housing crashes are horrible things with all sorts of consequences and pressures. Anyone wishing for one is either a speculator or a moron.</p>
<p>A 40% house price crash would be devastating for everyone. The whole economy would go into a tail spin. Idiots like Hickey seem to think a 40% reduction is the equivalent to just turning back on the clock, it is not. That 40% reversal process would be painful.</p> -
We had a 40% reduction in real house prices in the 70s but that was in an era of high inflation so the reality was price movement merely flattened out. <br><br>
In today's environment you'd need a real price fall with massive potential negative equity for many. <br><br>
Which is just awful to contemplate -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="dogmeat" data-cid="596336" data-time="1468402415">
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<p>We had a 40% reduction in real house prices in the 70s but that was in an era of high inflation so the reality was price movement merely flattened out.<br><br>
In today's environment you'd need a real price fall with massive potential negative equity for many.<br><br>
Which is just awful to contemplate</p>
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<p>The only way that will happen is if the Asian investors look to pull out. Now, although that is unlikely, it can happen, as HK discovered around the SARS time, when prices fell around 70%.</p>
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<p>They've since come back 350% before dropping around 12% again, but some sort of black swan event could well trigger that sort of exodus in NZ.</p>
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<p>Abeilt, however, unlikely.</p> -
<p>i agree it would be awful for those who have bought, but conversely it would be great for those looking to buy.</p>
<p>i think the reality is that houses are hugely overvalued in auckland, and i don't really see how it can be sustainable. house prices there are massive multiples of income, and in world terms it is just not a city with limited space at all. hong kong and singapore - those places should be expensive. sydney and auckland doesn't make sense to me - whack some high density stuff up and stick in a high speed rail link and you're done.</p>
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<p>maybe that's a touch simplistic, but i wouldn't touch property up there, unless my plan was a relatively quick re-sale.</p>
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<p>the lack of capital gains tax in nz does make investment property attractive (and people think houses are something tangible and something that they can understand), but that has also made it super popular and consequently expensive.</p> -
<p>Why 18 months?</p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="reprobate" data-cid="596345" data-time="1468404262"><p>
hong kong and singapore - those places should be expensive. sydney and auckland doesn't make sense to me - whack some high density stuff up and stick in a high speed rail link and you're done.</p></blockquote>
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Having attended scores of hearings read hundreds of pages and made written submissions and presentations on the proposed unitary plan which wants to do exactly this I have seen too well how the average punter thinks anything more than two stories heralds the road to Gomorrah <br><br>
Akl would be so enhanced by quality densification but certain sections of the media and geriatric counsellors have a large section of the electorate playing Henny penny<br><br>
Ironically in those area where it's happening anyway ppl can see the benefits -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Rembrandt" data-cid="596197" data-time="1468376677">
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<p>Anyone got any tips on getting into the sharemarket? Right now I'm kind of liking the idea of having something constructive to focus on.</p>
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<p>the asx (aussie sharemarket) used to have an online game / competition thing - where you get a certain amount of imaginary money to trade imaginary shares of real companies on the asx. might go for 6 months or so i think - so assuming that still exists you could give that a crack if you have some time on your hands.</p>
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<p>if you're serious about getting into it, there's a fair bit of reading to do. basic share purchasing is not at all complicated, as it is literally just buying a share of a company. basically i think you want to keep it simple - be buying good companies in industries with good future prospects when they happen to be cheap.</p>
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<p>good companies is easy-ish, future prospects is naturally a bit uncertain, and what's cheap is tricky. so best to focus on the first two, identify some targets, and their historical price trends, and take your time before buying - watch the prices for a while and look to pick them up in a temporary downturn when something scares investors (eg brexit). you also want a decent range to spread your risk - so different companies, different sectors, different countries etc - or just go the index funds.</p>
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<p>disclaimer: i'm no expert, but i took the time to learn a bit about it a while back when i had some spare coin and time.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="antipodean" data-cid="596236" data-time="1468385542">
<div><br><p>Thankfully shares do better. I play a simple game of long run averages and trying to catch falling knives. Like Australian bank stocks when everyone else is losing their minds.</p>
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<p>I have a mixture, wish list of 30 or so stocks in companies with long term track records of paying dividends, then buy in when their current P/E & yeild look out of sync with their history. Unless its really obvious why, HSBC usually yields around 4%, its currently yeilding 8%. That does not make it safe buy right now. </p>
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<p>Then a core of very low fee trusts & trackers. Shit like Scottish Mortgage is a great trust to get solid exposure to the tech industry, Vanguard do some really low fee trackers, Witan Trust, L&G Global Healthcare etc. wouldn't touch anything with more that 1% fees. Lot of the Vanguard stuff is sub 0.30%. Thats all buy & hold forever stuff too. Zero advice to give re day trading. And also that advice above is probably rubbish.</p>
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<p>The thing I'd say is if you were going to invest in property in NZ, buy global stocks, so NZ tanks you still have something working. </p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="dogmeat" data-cid="596355" data-time="1468406834">
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<p>Akl would be so enhanced by quality densification but certain sections of the media and geriatric counsellors have a large section of the electorate playing Henny penny<br><br>
Ironically in those area where it's happening anyway ppl can see the benefits</p>
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<p>This!</p>
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<p>With intensification comes amenities. I love living in Auckland, but by fark you have to choose where to live. Vast swathes of suburbia have nothing in the way of amenties - no pubs, no shops, nothing to do except get in your car. Intensify smart and you can develop local shit there. </p>
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<p>All we hear is the down side. The upside of intensification just isn't sold to people</p> -
I am pretty sure there are no universal 'lessons' anyone is going to give in stock markets, or if there is, the ones who know them, will not give them up over the internet. <br><br>
The best advice I ever got was to do your homework before investing into shares; no one can really tell if a given company will skyrocket or dive. <br>
Read blogs about investing, usually people who write those hand out tips on companies they have been following, then search for their annual reports and make your own mind if you like them or not. Put money on at least 5 different ones (preferably more) and make sure to find a bank with small fees (some might charge a fucktonne for just having a couple of shares) and make sure you buy or sell enough at a time to not waste money on transfer fees. <br>
And make sure to stay out of those shares everyone is talking about, either it is too late or they are not worth it.<br><br>
Edit: its also propably worth noting im not rich and do not have a shitload of money in stockmarkets :hi:<br><br>
Oh and definetily hit Tinder. The ex's friends will have her know in less than 24h that you are already looking for someone else and that will make her feel bad. Which will make you feel better in your anger state. -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Rembrandt" data-cid="596197" data-time="1468376677">
<div>Anyone got any tips on getting into the sharemarket? Right now I'm kind of liking the idea of having something constructive to focus on.</div>
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<p>Similar to BSG's excellent post on how to approach home ownership - for the stock investor always keep in mind that you are buying and selling businesses. If you are comfortable buying stocks based on their market cap, future prospects, assets (both tangible and non tangible) at their current valuation then you will do a lot better than most. Sell when your opinion of that situation changes.</p>
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<p>With stocks based on historical valuations overpriced and coming off a multi-year run it's probably worth looking into vanilla options (calls/puts). Some find it easier to identify overpriced or flawed companies and than undervalued assets. While it may seem daunting the learning curve isn't terribly steep. There is something of a perverse pleasure in it as distinct for pure stock plays.</p>
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<p>The best recommendation I could make for going from a total novice to making stock picks that you have strong conviction would be anything by Peter Lynch. Slightly dated and some of the examples are a bit camp - but if you get the gist of his approach, you'll probably have 5-10 stock picks of your own after that book that aren't a complete train-wreck.</p>
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<p>Also pretty quickly figure out the difference between speculation and investing. Speculation is totally fine and in your situation would interest me a hell of a lot more than value investing! But adjust your risk accordingly and don't play yourself into thinking you are investing when really you are speculating. Same goes for property.</p>
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<p>Good luck!</p>
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<p>Also, there is the TAB.</p>