Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
what @mariner4life said - it really doesn't take long to cycle 20/100/500/2500. They were here a few weeks ago.
I'm also sadly not surprised. Delta is here to stay, L4 won't wipe it out, L3 is barely controlling it. If we're not talking about flattening the curve, we're deluding ourselves ... the options are Delta now, or Delta later I fear.
leave the "i fear" off. it's a fact.
as for "flattening the curve"
i am kinds suprised with how cool everyone is with the term "prevent the hospital system being overrun" when the reason that is an issue is because of the spending decisions of successive governments
"yeah, we gutted the health system and run it right on the line, so you have to stay in your houses suckers. Soz. lol. be kind though"
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
what @mariner4life said - it really doesn't take long to cycle 20/100/500/2500. They were here a few weeks ago.
I'm also sadly not surprised. Delta is here to stay, L4 won't wipe it out, L3 is barely controlling it. If we're not talking about flattening the curve, we're deluding ourselves ... the options are Delta now, or Delta later I fear.
leave the "i fear" off. it's a fact.
as for "flattening the curve"
i am kinds suprised with how cool everyone is with the term "prevent the hospital system being overrun" when the reason that is an issue is because of the spending decisions of successive governments
"yeah, we gutted the health system and run it right on the line, so you have to stay in your houses suckers. Soz. lol. be kind though"
That is the problem, but funding for hospitals doesn't present a short term answer as to how we negotiate covid from now on without lockdown. As most of us know, vaccination is the cheapest easiest way to protect our hospital system and the population right now
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
what @mariner4life said - it really doesn't take long to cycle 20/100/500/2500. They were here a few weeks ago.
I'm also sadly not surprised. Delta is here to stay, L4 won't wipe it out, L3 is barely controlling it. If we're not talking about flattening the curve, we're deluding ourselves ... the options are Delta now, or Delta later I fear.
leave the "i fear" off. it's a fact.
as for "flattening the curve"
i am kinds suprised with how cool everyone is with the term "prevent the hospital system being overrun" when the reason that is an issue is because of the spending decisions of successive governments
"yeah, we gutted the health system and run it right on the line, so you have to stay in your houses suckers. Soz. lol. be kind though"
That is the problem, but funding for hospitals doesn't present a short term answer as to how we negotiate covid from now on without lockdown. As most of us know, vaccination is the cheapest easiest way to protect our hospital system and the population right now
yes, we all know that. that's not the point
"protecting the hospitals" is a fucking shit reason for all of this if you stop to think about it though,
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
what @mariner4life said - it really doesn't take long to cycle 20/100/500/2500. They were here a few weeks ago.
I'm also sadly not surprised. Delta is here to stay, L4 won't wipe it out, L3 is barely controlling it. If we're not talking about flattening the curve, we're deluding ourselves ... the options are Delta now, or Delta later I fear.
leave the "i fear" off. it's a fact.
as for "flattening the curve"
i am kinds suprised with how cool everyone is with the term "prevent the hospital system being overrun" when the reason that is an issue is because of the spending decisions of successive governments
"yeah, we gutted the health system and run it right on the line, so you have to stay in your houses suckers. Soz. lol. be kind though"
That is the problem, but funding for hospitals doesn't present a short term answer as to how we negotiate covid from now on without lockdown. As most of us know, vaccination is the cheapest easiest way to protect our hospital system and the population right now
yes, we all know that. that's not the point
"protecting the hospitals" is a fucking shit reason for all of this if you stop to think about it though,
I could swallow that reason in March 2020. Now? Yeah nah
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@mariner4life I Mean they could throw a couple of billion at Health, that would be the equivalent of 2 weeks in L4...but getting the equipment and trained personell in the same period, or even a few months...
I think the best we can hope is we keep ticking along with cases coming in as they are, but not spiralling out of control...
In some ways, I guess NZ is in a better position than most other countries right now with the level of vaccination compared to when other countries got Delta outbreaks, so hopefully that will mitigate the rapid spread and hospitalisation somewhat.
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@mariner4life No one is cool with it but you are mis-stating the issue.
You can always spend more on health for sure, but NZ health spending has consistently increased ahead of CPI for a long time. The issues are entrenched social ones, aging population and obesity and other 1st world diseases. And [beats drum] inefficient bureaucracies [/beats drum] Health is alos expensive for a small country population wise Here are a couple of graphs to illustrate it
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@dogmeat I agree that health is expensive for us. And we don't have a large population with which insurance companies can gear their medical cover to make it more attractive. Plus we have always had free public health services and that expectation won't change anytime soon. And we don't sit on a mountain of uranium and other mineral wealth to help fund it
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life I Mean they could throw a couple of billion at Health, that would be the equivalent of 2 weeks in L4...but getting the equipment and trained personell in the same period, or even a few months...
I think the best we can hope is we keep ticking along with cases coming in as they are, but not spiralling out of control...
In some ways, I guess NZ is in a better position than most other countries right now with the level of vaccination compared to when other countries got Delta outbreaks, so hopefully that will mitigate the rapid spread and hospitalisation somewhat.
Trained personnel and hospital capacity are probably the bigger issues than equipment.
https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/ventilators_and_icu_capacity_11_may_2020.pdf has a nice table of capacity of ICU beds by DHB in May 2020 - total was 358.
doesn't have the nice table but does say that the resourced beds on 4 September 2021 were 332 (resourced in this case means had enough staff available to use them).Despite the suggestion in the first document that a significant increase in ICU bed numbers was being worked on, that obviously didn't eventuate in permanent numbers. Ventilators have increased substantially in that time by 300 so at least that much happened. Surge capacity is currently around 200 additional beds with ventilators apparently.
One issue that I read elsewhere was that ICU hospitals are mostly fully utilised, so any significant increase in ICU capacity either comes with lost capacity elsewhere i.e. opportunity cost of foregone services of some sort, or requires enough of an increase in space that new wards have to be built, which is then subject to the usual labour and material constraints at a time when as far as NZ could tell, we didn't need them, and anything more than surge capacity would take years to build up .
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@godder pretty damning that after 18 months there has been no real increase in ICU capacity.
I see the aussies have been poaching nurses from other countries. A good short term measure we could have done while we put resources into training more ICU staff.
This, and the botched vaccine rollout, is two main things a government can do handle a pandemic that they have fucked up.
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@godder pretty damning that after 18 months there has been no real increase in ICU capacity.
I see the aussies have been poaching nurses from other countries. A good short term measure we could have done while we put resources into training more ICU staff.
This, and the botched vaccine rollout, is two main things a government can do handle a pandemic that they have fucked up.
We could bring a whole load of nurses in as well oh wait.....
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@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@godder pretty damning that after 18 months there has been no real increase in ICU capacity.
I see the aussies have been poaching nurses from other countries. A good short term measure we could have done while we put resources into training more ICU staff.
This, and the botched vaccine rollout, is two main things a government can do handle a pandemic that they have fucked up.
The money was available for DHBs, they just didn't spend it - in the budget documents (see page 132) there is $37,195,000 carried forward from 2019/20 to 2020/21 for purchasing additional ventilated and non-ventilated ICU capacity.
Fuck knows why the DHBs didn't spend it, but they can't legally be forced to, and even if DHBs agree to something, if they later renege, governmental options are limited. No wonder they are being given the boot. Also, staffing of hospitals is a DHB responsibility, so again, they can be offered money, but can't be made to spend it.
There's still a question to be answered here though - if ICU capacity is significantly expanded, what services are being removed to make room for them? ICU takes up a lot of space in a hospital, and it's not just a matter of squeezing an extra bed or two into current wards - this is the equivalent of adding a whole new ward to a full space. It's not like hospitals actually have spare wards or services that could easily be permanently relocated because usually that was done years ago because it was cheaper than building a new hospital. What ward is being removed?
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@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@godder pretty damning that after 18 months there has been no real increase in ICU capacity.
I see the aussies have been poaching nurses from other countries. A good short term measure we could have done while we put resources into training more ICU staff.
This, and the botched vaccine rollout, is two main things a government can do handle a pandemic that they have fucked up.
The money was available for DHBs, they just didn't spend it - in the budget documents (see page 132) there is $37,195,000 carried forward from 2019/20 to 2020/21 for purchasing additional ventilated and non-ventilated ICU capacity.
Fuck knows why the DHBs didn't spend it, but they can't legally be forced to, and even if DHBs agree to something, if they later renege, governmental options are limited. No wonder they are being given the boot. Also, staffing of hospitals is a DHB responsibility, so again, they can be offered money, but can't be made to spend it.
There's still a question to be answered here though - if ICU capacity is significantly expanded, what services are being removed to make room for them? ICU takes up a lot of space in a hospital, and it's not just a matter of squeezing an extra bed or two into current wards - this is the equivalent of adding a whole new ward to a full space. It's not like hospitals actually have spare wards or services that could easily be permanently relocated because usually that was done years ago because it was cheaper than building a new hospital. What ward is being removed?
Having seen DHBs in action from afar, it literally takes decades to get anything of the scale of facility expansion done. Vaccination. Cheaper and easier
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
what @mariner4life said - it really doesn't take long to cycle 20/100/500/2500. They were here a few weeks ago.
I'm also sadly not surprised. Delta is here to stay, L4 won't wipe it out, L3 is barely controlling it. If we're not talking about flattening the curve, we're deluding ourselves ... the options are Delta now, or Delta later I fear.
leave the "i fear" off. it's a fact.
as for "flattening the curve"
i am kinds suprised with how cool everyone is with the term "prevent the hospital system being overrun" when the reason that is an issue is because of the spending decisions of successive governments
"yeah, we gutted the health system and run it right on the line, so you have to stay in your houses suckers. Soz. lol. be kind though"
That is the problem, but funding for hospitals doesn't present a short term answer as to how we negotiate covid from now on without lockdown. As most of us know, vaccination is the cheapest easiest way to protect our hospital system and the population right now
yes, we all know that. that's not the point
"protecting the hospitals" is a fucking shit reason for all of this if you stop to think about it though,
Exactly. Hospitals are there to protect people, not the other way around.
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@jc said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan Is it that simple though? Did you see this? The kaumatua in Murupara are saying that as a community they have made a conscious decision not to get vaccinated because they are waiting for a better one. I’m sorry but this is simply ignorance and it’s being indulged by the government n and the DOH at the expense of fully vaccinated Aucklanders who can’t live their lives.
Reckon it's more of an excuse.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@jc said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan Is it that simple though? Did you see this? The kaumatua in Murupara are saying that as a community they have made a conscious decision not to get vaccinated because they are waiting for a better one. I’m sorry but this is simply ignorance and it’s being indulged by the government n and the DOH at the expense of fully vaccinated Aucklanders who can’t live their lives.
I had a more violent reaction to that article, as I posted above. You're right in that it is ignorance - but it is also utter arrogance. The idea that this community gets to select the best vaccine (in their educated view) globally, then demand the Govt procure, fund, deliver, and administer said vaccine to them, is absolutely outrageous.
See above comment. Don't want to vaccinate, what excuse can we come up with?
Say, hypothetically, Cindy personally delivers "the best vaccine in the world", firstly what is that? Secondly do you not expect the same idiots to come up with some other excuse not to be jabbed?
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@jc Since found out, apparently all 8 are in Whangarei
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Thought they would be. As I understand it one of the issues with ICU beds is having trained staff.
They'd have to group them all together as they can't really have multiple crews looking after 2 beds in a "remote" hospital that may not be occupied.
I know nothing but I'm sort of guessing you would need at least 3.5 crews to cover an ICU unit based on 3 x 8 hour shifts, and is it 1 nurse per bed?
Easier if they're all in one place.
IIRC both parents were transferred to Whangarei from Laura is (and onwards as necessary) even as far back as the early 90s, even when Kaitaia was a much more resourced hospital.
All this written in the great Fern tradition of ignorance and conjecture.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life I Mean they could throw a couple of billion at Health, that would be the equivalent of 2 weeks in L4...but getting the equipment and trained personell in the same period, or even a few months...
I think the best we can hope is we keep ticking along with cases coming in as they are, but not spiralling out of control...
In some ways, I guess NZ is in a better position than most other countries right now with the level of vaccination compared to when other countries got Delta outbreaks, so hopefully that will mitigate the rapid spread and hospitalisation somewhat.
Equipment was probably doable, if started in March 2020.
Staff?
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@godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@godder pretty damning that after 18 months there has been no real increase in ICU capacity.
I see the aussies have been poaching nurses from other countries. A good short term measure we could have done while we put resources into training more ICU staff.
This, and the botched vaccine rollout, is two main things a government can do handle a pandemic that they have fucked up.
The money was available for DHBs, they just didn't spend it - in the budget documents (see page 132) there is $37,195,000 carried forward from 2019/20 to 2020/21 for purchasing additional ventilated and non-ventilated ICU capacity.
Fuck knows why the DHBs didn't spend it, but they can't legally be forced to, and even if DHBs agree to something, if they later renege, governmental options are limited. No wonder they are being given the boot. Also, staffing of hospitals is a DHB responsibility, so again, they can be offered money, but can't be made to spend it.
There's still a question to be answered here though - if ICU capacity is significantly expanded, what services are being removed to make room for them? ICU takes up a lot of space in a hospital, and it's not just a matter of squeezing an extra bed or two into current wards - this is the equivalent of adding a whole new ward to a full space. It's not like hospitals actually have spare wards or services that could easily be permanently relocated because usually that was done years ago because it was cheaper than building a new hospital. What ward is being removed?
Nothing here is an unsolvable problem. Governments can act quickly when they want to, temporary powers to create a centralised pandemic hospital for example.
Plan to run it separately for the duration of the crisis and merge it back into the system over time. Field hospitals from the army, am sure others will come up other ideas too. Think outside the box to staff it.
This is either an emergency or it isn’t.
When this started 18 freaking months ago, the idea was to avoid overwhelming hospital capacity. Somewhere during that first lockdown they decided to switch to eliminating instead and this seems to have stopped any effort into increasing our capacity.
To be honest, your post sounds like excuse making. We have been failed.
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@booboo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life I Mean they could throw a couple of billion at Health, that would be the equivalent of 2 weeks in L4...but getting the equipment and trained personell in the same period, or even a few months...
I think the best we can hope is we keep ticking along with cases coming in as they are, but not spiralling out of control...
In some ways, I guess NZ is in a better position than most other countries right now with the level of vaccination compared to when other countries got Delta outbreaks, so hopefully that will mitigate the rapid spread and hospitalisation somewhat.
Equipment was probably doable, if started in March 2020.
Staff?
Poach from overseas, fast track candidates with experience, use junior doctors. Handle a peak while you train for a more permanent approach.
There has to be a will to do something. These guys won’t even pay the nurses we have a decent rate and we lose them to Oz.
Put the pay up and use supply and demand.