Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
He said for the overwhelming majority of double vaxed Covid will be like a booster vaccine shot, might fe4el a bit ropey for a couple of days but then you will have even more immunity but that based on overseas experience 10% of the unvaxed will need hospitilisation and that a rigid system will not be able to spread this out. He believes next year is all about balancing the case load so hospitals don't get overwhelmed and that we therefore need a more nuanced and agile approach citing Singapore as a exemplar in the way they have prevented a peak demands post opening up.
So, sort of flattening the curve, you say...?
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
To balance that there was also a piece by epidemiologist Rod Jackson saying the govt's traffic light system is the wrong step. He wasn't arguing against opening up but said next year was going to be very difficult because there were going to be half a million unvaxed and Covid was going to spread through that population quickly.
guess the thing there, is those 500k unvaccinated are spread around NZ, it would be the pockets of higher % unvaccinated that will be of more concern.
Seems we are in a bit of a loop, going round and round, over the same BS every day in our media, with experts every day saying this, health experts saying that, community leaders something else the Govt announcing annoucements...I barely watch the ews, I think I need to block myself from Newshub/Stuff....
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@taniwharugby I'd be interested to see an overlay of the pockets of unvaxxed vs ICU / high-dependency unit capacity. I bet there aren't hundreds of ICU beds in central North Island. Or Northland.
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@jc Since found out, apparently all 8 are in Whangarei
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
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@taniwharugby Nobody could ever have foreseen that Covid might have required you to have more than 8. When your neighbours can't get admitted to hospital after a heart attack it will be nobody's fault, and to suggest otherwise would be unkind.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@jc Since found out, apparently all 8 are in Whangarei
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Does anyone have Brian Tamakis email address ? this might interest him.
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
of course, at the end of August Melbourne was only getting 75 a day as well
something to look forward to...
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
what @mariner4life said - it really doesn't take long to cycle 20/100/500/2500. They were here a few weeks ago.
I'm also sadly not surprised. Delta is here to stay, L4 won't wipe it out, L3 is barely controlling it. If we're not talking about flattening the curve, we're deluding ourselves ... the options are Delta now, or Delta later I fear.
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
what @mariner4life said - it really doesn't take long to cycle 20/100/500/2500. They were here a few weeks ago.
I'm also sadly not surprised. Delta is here to stay, L4 won't wipe it out, L3 is barely controlling it. If we're not talking about flattening the curve, we're deluding ourselves ... the options are Delta now, or Delta later I fear.
leave the "i fear" off. it's a fact.
as for "flattening the curve"
i am kinds suprised with how cool everyone is with the term "prevent the hospital system being overrun" when the reason that is an issue is because of the spending decisions of successive governments
"yeah, we gutted the health system and run it right on the line, so you have to stay in your houses suckers. Soz. lol. be kind though"
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
what @mariner4life said - it really doesn't take long to cycle 20/100/500/2500. They were here a few weeks ago.
I'm also sadly not surprised. Delta is here to stay, L4 won't wipe it out, L3 is barely controlling it. If we're not talking about flattening the curve, we're deluding ourselves ... the options are Delta now, or Delta later I fear.
leave the "i fear" off. it's a fact.
as for "flattening the curve"
i am kinds suprised with how cool everyone is with the term "prevent the hospital system being overrun" when the reason that is an issue is because of the spending decisions of successive governments
"yeah, we gutted the health system and run it right on the line, so you have to stay in your houses suckers. Soz. lol. be kind though"
That is the problem, but funding for hospitals doesn't present a short term answer as to how we negotiate covid from now on without lockdown. As most of us know, vaccination is the cheapest easiest way to protect our hospital system and the population right now
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
what @mariner4life said - it really doesn't take long to cycle 20/100/500/2500. They were here a few weeks ago.
I'm also sadly not surprised. Delta is here to stay, L4 won't wipe it out, L3 is barely controlling it. If we're not talking about flattening the curve, we're deluding ourselves ... the options are Delta now, or Delta later I fear.
leave the "i fear" off. it's a fact.
as for "flattening the curve"
i am kinds suprised with how cool everyone is with the term "prevent the hospital system being overrun" when the reason that is an issue is because of the spending decisions of successive governments
"yeah, we gutted the health system and run it right on the line, so you have to stay in your houses suckers. Soz. lol. be kind though"
That is the problem, but funding for hospitals doesn't present a short term answer as to how we negotiate covid from now on without lockdown. As most of us know, vaccination is the cheapest easiest way to protect our hospital system and the population right now
yes, we all know that. that's not the point
"protecting the hospitals" is a fucking shit reason for all of this if you stop to think about it though,
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
94 new cases today. We're on track to crack a hundred really soon. This is going sideways even at L3.whatever
We have a long way to go to catch up with Melbourne's 2000 or so a day. Soon infected people won't be sent to hotels around the city because they will all be full
what @mariner4life said - it really doesn't take long to cycle 20/100/500/2500. They were here a few weeks ago.
I'm also sadly not surprised. Delta is here to stay, L4 won't wipe it out, L3 is barely controlling it. If we're not talking about flattening the curve, we're deluding ourselves ... the options are Delta now, or Delta later I fear.
leave the "i fear" off. it's a fact.
as for "flattening the curve"
i am kinds suprised with how cool everyone is with the term "prevent the hospital system being overrun" when the reason that is an issue is because of the spending decisions of successive governments
"yeah, we gutted the health system and run it right on the line, so you have to stay in your houses suckers. Soz. lol. be kind though"
That is the problem, but funding for hospitals doesn't present a short term answer as to how we negotiate covid from now on without lockdown. As most of us know, vaccination is the cheapest easiest way to protect our hospital system and the population right now
yes, we all know that. that's not the point
"protecting the hospitals" is a fucking shit reason for all of this if you stop to think about it though,
I could swallow that reason in March 2020. Now? Yeah nah
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@mariner4life I Mean they could throw a couple of billion at Health, that would be the equivalent of 2 weeks in L4...but getting the equipment and trained personell in the same period, or even a few months...
I think the best we can hope is we keep ticking along with cases coming in as they are, but not spiralling out of control...
In some ways, I guess NZ is in a better position than most other countries right now with the level of vaccination compared to when other countries got Delta outbreaks, so hopefully that will mitigate the rapid spread and hospitalisation somewhat.
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@mariner4life No one is cool with it but you are mis-stating the issue.
You can always spend more on health for sure, but NZ health spending has consistently increased ahead of CPI for a long time. The issues are entrenched social ones, aging population and obesity and other 1st world diseases. And [beats drum] inefficient bureaucracies [/beats drum] Health is alos expensive for a small country population wise Here are a couple of graphs to illustrate it
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@dogmeat I agree that health is expensive for us. And we don't have a large population with which insurance companies can gear their medical cover to make it more attractive. Plus we have always had free public health services and that expectation won't change anytime soon. And we don't sit on a mountain of uranium and other mineral wealth to help fund it
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@mariner4life I Mean they could throw a couple of billion at Health, that would be the equivalent of 2 weeks in L4...but getting the equipment and trained personell in the same period, or even a few months...
I think the best we can hope is we keep ticking along with cases coming in as they are, but not spiralling out of control...
In some ways, I guess NZ is in a better position than most other countries right now with the level of vaccination compared to when other countries got Delta outbreaks, so hopefully that will mitigate the rapid spread and hospitalisation somewhat.
Trained personnel and hospital capacity are probably the bigger issues than equipment.
https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/ventilators_and_icu_capacity_11_may_2020.pdf has a nice table of capacity of ICU beds by DHB in May 2020 - total was 358.
doesn't have the nice table but does say that the resourced beds on 4 September 2021 were 332 (resourced in this case means had enough staff available to use them).Despite the suggestion in the first document that a significant increase in ICU bed numbers was being worked on, that obviously didn't eventuate in permanent numbers. Ventilators have increased substantially in that time by 300 so at least that much happened. Surge capacity is currently around 200 additional beds with ventilators apparently.
One issue that I read elsewhere was that ICU hospitals are mostly fully utilised, so any significant increase in ICU capacity either comes with lost capacity elsewhere i.e. opportunity cost of foregone services of some sort, or requires enough of an increase in space that new wards have to be built, which is then subject to the usual labour and material constraints at a time when as far as NZ could tell, we didn't need them, and anything more than surge capacity would take years to build up .